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The Role of Hydropower in Pakistan's Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

Writer's picture: Dr. Farrukh ChishtieDr. Farrukh Chishtie

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Osama Sajid


Hydropower plays a pivotal role in Pakistan’s energy landscape and can address climate change via mitigation.


Accounting for approximately 27% of the country’s total installed electricity generation capacity of 41,557 MW as of 2023. With its abundant river systems, including the Indus River Basin, Pakistan has an estimated hydropower potential of 60,000 MW, of which only about 16% has been tapped. As the effects of climate change intensify, hydropower has emerged as a critical tool in both mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapting to evolving environmental challenges.


Hydropower as a Climate Mitigation Tool, Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Dependence on Fossil Fuels

Hydropower is a renewable energy source that significantly reduces reliance on fossil fuels. In 2022, Pakistan’s power sector contributed roughly 46% of the country’s total GHG emissions, primarily from coal, oil, and gas-fired power plants. Expanding hydropower generation presents a transformative opportunity to shift away from thermal energy and lower emissions substantially.

The Dasu Hydropower Project, currently under construction on the Indus River, is expected to add 4,320 MW to the national grid upon completion. According to the World Bank, this project alone will displace thermal power generation and reduce carbon emissions by approximately 12 million tons annually.

Small and medium-sized hydropower projects further exemplify the role of hydropower in sustainable development. The 84 MW New Bong Escape project demonstrates the viability of providing clean and affordable electricity to remote areas. By scaling up similar initiatives, Pakistan can foster energy equity, reduce emissions, and support rural electrification.


Climate Adaptation Through Hydropower, Building Resilience to Environmental Challenges


Hydropower infrastructure strengthens Pakistan’s capacity to manage climate-induced challenges, such as erratic precipitation, glacial melt, and extreme weather events. Storage-based hydropower plants like the Tarbela and Mangla Dams play dual roles in electricity generation and water management. By regulating river flows and storing water during periods of surplus, these dams help mitigate the impacts of floods and droughts, which are increasingly frequent due to climate change.

Pakistan’s glaciers, the largest outside the polar regions, are critical to the country’s water and energy supply. They contribute up to 80% of the Indus River’s summer flow, feeding major hydropower plants. However, rising temperatures are accelerating glacial melting, posing long-term risks. Studies predict an initial increase in river flows until 2050, followed by a sharp decline as glaciers shrink.


Adaptive measures have been implemented to address these risks. For instance, raising the height of the Mangla Dam has enhanced its storage capacity by 2.9 million acre-feet (MAF), while the Diamer- Bhasha Dam is expected to provide an additional 8.1 MAF of water storage and generate 4,500 MW of electricity. These projects offer essential buffers against water shortages, support agricultural needs, and ensure stable hydropower generation despite changing climatic conditions.


Conclusion, Hydropower as a Cornerstone for a Climate-Resilient Future


Hydropower is central to Pakistan’s efforts to achieve sustainable development, reduce carbon emissions, and adapt to the challenges posed by climate change. By tapping into its untapped hydropower potential and modernizing existing infrastructure, Pakistan can significantly reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, enhance energy security, and improve resilience to environmental uncertainties.

As the country moves forward under the Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019, hydropower will continue to play a critical role in achieving renewable energy targets and ensuring a sustainable energy future. Expanding this clean energy source will not only reduce Pakistan’s carbon footprint but also position it as a leader in renewable energy adoption in South Asia.

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