Pakistan's increasing heat and drought

//

Abdul Aleem Chaudhry

On a sweltering afternoon in the second half of June, while I was driving from Faisalabad to Islamabad on the motorway, the mercury fluctuated between 44°C and 47°C.

Not only was it hot that day, but also a dramatic scene to behold: more than 50 cars were halted on the roadside with their doors, windows, and bonnets open, while several had their occupants finding cover. The motorway police, realizing the seriousness of the situation, had started permitting emergency halts. This picture, so unfamiliar to summers past, highlights a perilous new norm: record heat is becoming increasingly normal in Pakistan.

This year’s heatwave arrived weeks earlier than usual, beginning in April and intensifying through May and June. Across Sindh and Punjab, temperatures consistently exceeded historical averages, and in some areas, crossed a life-threatening 50 °C. The early and prolonged spell has pushed the country into uncharted territory. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department and global climate data:

• Pakistan’s annual mean temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 °C since 1901.

• There have almost quintupled heatwave days in the last 30 years.

• Average temperature is projected by climate models to increase by a further 3–5 °C by the turn of this century.

This savage warmth has been accompanied by a relentless and intense dry spell that has further worsened Pakistan's already precarious water situation. During September 2024 to January 2025, Pakistan received 40% lesser rainfall than average. Sindh was 52% short, Baluchistan 45%, and Punjab 42%. Consequently, principal reservoirs, Tarbela and Mangla, have fallen to critically low levels, threatening both Rabi and Kharif crop irrigation.

Lending to this crisis is a sharp 42% drop in winter rains, which has stripped the north's snowpack. River flows have plummeted. Adding to the challenge is India halting the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which, together with climate change, puts at risk long-term river water inflows into Pakistan. The linking of increasing heat and decreasing water levels is creating a feedback loop that is destructive. Reduced rainfall and snow result in lower river flow, which lessens evaporative cooling and rises surface temperatures. As water runs shorter, the heat intensifies, and more lethal.

Effects on health, agriculture, and infrastructure:

Health

Hospitals in Pakistan are facing mounting pressure. Everyday cases of heatstroke, dehydration, kidney injuries, cholera, and diarrhea are on the rise. Heatwaves in Sindh alone in 2024 killed at least 568 people and saw thousands hospitalized, a count which might increase this year.

Agriculture

Southern Punjab and interior Sindh farmers complain of wilting crops and dry fields. Livestock are on the brink of survival. The anticipated 30–35% water shortage in irrigation can severely affect wheat, cotton, mango, and rice production, resulting in increased food prices and rural discomfort.

Infrastructure and power

Extended power shutdowns, some that have lasted 16 hours daily, have denied communities access to fans, air conditioners, or even clean water. Islamabad and Lahore are seeing more extreme "urban heat island" effects, as city buildings tend to absorb and retain heat, adding to the temperature.

A glaring policy gap

Despite multiple heatwave alerts, Pakistan's institutional response is still weak. Provincial authorities have issued generic advisories, urging people to stay hydrated and avoid sun exposure, but a holistic heat action plan is absent in most provinces. Health facilities and disaster management departments are not equipped to handle the increasing barrage of climate-related emergencies.

Experts and green activists strongly stress the requirement of urgent and concerted action. Most notable recommendations include:

1. Municipalities need to create early warning systems, community outreach strategies, and emergency cool centers.

2. Reservoir rehabilitation, investment in water-saving irrigation, and groundwater use regulation are the key.

3. Promote drought-resistant crops, climate-resilient farming, and rainwater harvesting at the local level.

4. Green open spaces should be expanded, tree cover enhanced, reflective roofing implemented, and ventilation in congested neighborhoods should be enhanced.

5. Supply hospitals with standby power systems, heat-related illnesses training, and rapid response measures.

   
   

The global climate context

Pakistan's greenhouse gas emissions amount to less than 1% worldwide, but it is one of the top ten countries most exposed to climate change, the Global Climate Risk Index reveals. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a global climate body, has cautioned that by 2050, South Asia could face as many as five lethal heatwaves a year, unless emissions are significantly curbed. This international injustice then puts even more onus on national and provincial policymakers to safeguard their people.

Resilience and hope in the community

In the face of limited resources, communities throughout Pakistan are finding creative solutions. In rural areas of Sindh and southern Punjab, NGOs are advocating for traditional mud shelters, community cooling centers, and solar-powered water systems. Some schools have reduced summer terms or changed timings to shield children. These grass-root efforts are full of hope, but they need the full strength of the government to be replicated.

The increased heat and intensifying water shortage are not standalone flukes, they are signs of speeding up climate collapse. Without strong infrastructure, policy vision, and climate resilience measures, Pakistan's summers will be even more merciless. The hour to take action is now. Procrastination will seal the fate of future generations to an ever-more uninhabitable world.