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Abdul Aleem Chaudhry
Central and southern Punjab, the agricultural heartland of Pakistan, is facing unprecedented challenges due to extreme weather conditions. Rising temperatures and prolonged heatwaves have severely affected crop yields, exacerbated by the widespread use of poor-quality seeds.
Climate change threatens the livelihoods of millions of farmers and poses a significant risk to the country’s food security. In this article, I present the case of Punjab, where these impacts are wreaking havoc.
Case Study: Wrong Choices and Severe Consequences
Muhammad Qasim Kamboh, from Toba Tek Singh in Punjab, an area traditionally not known for rice cultivation, has witnessed a recent expansion in rice farming. Last year, local farmers who planted hybrid rice varieties achieved yields exceeding 100 maunds per acre and sold their produce for around 4,000 rupees per maund. Encouraged by these results, Qasim leased 13 acres of land this year to cultivate hybrid rice, investing 1.8 million rupees. Unfortunately, the crop matured with barren stalks and no grain, resulting in a total loss of his investment.
"This was my first large-scale rice cultivation, and the loss has been so severe that I will never consider growing rice again," he lamented.
Qasim suspects the seeds provided by the company were of poor quality. He has filed a complaint with the Deputy Director of Agriculture (Extension) against the company Kunzeo, seeking action and compensation. However, the company claims that the damage was due to extreme heat.
Qasim’s experience is not unique; many farmers have suffered this season due to the combination of high temperatures and poor-quality seeds. Even sesame crops have failed to meet expectations.
Climate Change and Its Impact on Agriculture
Experts note that rice plants can tolerate temperatures up to 35°C. However, in July this year, during the critical pollination stage, temperatures soared above 45°C, preventing grain development. This issue was not confined to one area but affected the entire Punjab region. This year, no farmer has achieved a yield of 70 maunds per acre, despite hybrid varieties typically producing over 80 maunds.
According to the Meteorological Department’s report, July 2024 was the hottest month in Pakistan in 64 years, matching the temperatures recorded in July 1969. The average temperature was 32.62°C, 1.26°C above the norm, with maximum daytime temperatures reaching 38.58°C, 1.39°C higher than usual. Minimum nighttime temperatures were also 1.36°C above average.
Decline in Crop Yields Due to Rising Temperatures
Abbas Ali Shah, Deputy Director of the agency responsible for estimating crop production in Punjab, reports that estimates for early-planted or affected rice crops have not yet been made. However, it is estimated that about 5-6% of rice cultivation in Punjab is early-sown. Last year’s data indicated early-planted rice was grown on approximately 778,000 acres, or 7.27% of the total rice cultivation area. Given the extreme heat this year, over 800,000 acres of rice may have been partially or fully affected.
The World Bank’s 2022 report estimated that damages from flood-affected areas in Pakistan’s agriculture and infrastructure exceeded $40 billion USD. The intensifying impact of climate change and rising temperatures pose severe risks to both the environment and Pakistan’s economic stability.
Since the 1960s, Pakistan’s average annual temperature has increased by approximately 0.5°C. Projections suggest that by 2050, the average temperature could rise an additional 1.3 to 1.5°C. The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns that even a 1°C increase in average temperature could reduce food and cash crop yields by 5-10%. Rice, particularly vulnerable during its fruiting stage, can suffer yield reductions of 10-15% with temperatures above 35°C, and in severely affected areas, reductions could reach up to 40%.
Historical Context of Heat Damage
Extreme heat has historically damaged crops. Over the past 10-15 years, high temperatures have repeatedly impacted crop yields. In 2010, extreme heat led to a significant drop in cotton production in Punjab, with yields falling to 18 maunds per acre from 20-24 maunds the previous year. This period marked the beginning of a decline in cotton cultivation and an increase in maize cultivation in some central Punjab areas.
In June and July 2012, unexpected temperature rises during maize pollination significantly impacted production. Similarly, in 2015, increased nighttime temperatures severely affected rice yields. In August 2020, maize production declined notably due to temperatures 0.76°C above the national average, and rice crops were adversely affected again in 2021.
The Issue of Poor-Quality Seeds
While climate change is a major factor, the widespread use of poor-quality seeds exacerbates the problem. Substandard seeds, often sold without proper testing or certification, fail to withstand harsh conditions or pests, leading to low germination rates and poor crop growth. Farmers, already facing financial difficulties, are often compelled to use these inferior seeds due to limited availability of better options or lack of awareness.
Poor-quality seeds further reduce yields and increase vulnerability to diseases and pests. Combined with severe weather conditions, this results in diminished output and additional financial strain on farming communities that depend heavily on agriculture.
Addressing the Crisis
To mitigate the impact of extreme weather and poor seed quality, a comprehensive approach is necessary:
1. Investment in Climate-Resilient Agriculture: Research and development of climate-resistant crop varieties are crucial. Introducing drought-resistant and heat-tolerant seeds will enhance crop resilience and ensure better yields under adverse conditions.
2. Access to Quality Seeds: Authorities must address the issue of substandard seeds and ensure farmers have access to certified, high-quality seeds. This includes improving seed distribution systems and equipping farmers with knowledge to make informed choices.
3. Farmer Training and Awareness: Providing farmers with access to modern agricultural practices, including technology and sustainable methods, is essential. Government initiatives should focus on increasing awareness about climate change, crop management, and the benefits of quality inputs.
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