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Abdul Aleem Chaudhry
Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, contributing 22% to GDP which employs 38% of the workforce. The country’s fertile plains have long produced staples such as wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane. However, climate change has increasingly jeopardized these crops, with erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and shrinking water resources threatening food security and farmer livelihoods.
Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change in Pakistan, because of its geographical location with arid and semiarid conditions. Transitioning to climate-resilient varieties is no longer a choice but a necessity for Pakistan’s farmers.
Wheat, for instance, is the crown jewel of Pakistani agriculture. Planted on 9 million hectares annually, wheat is essential to the country’s food security. In 2024, Pakistan is forecast to produce a record 28.8 million tons due to improved irrigation systems and certified seeds. However wheat is vulnerable to heat stress and unpredictable rainfall patterns. During recent seasons, these erratic weather patterns have affected wheat crops badly. For instance, in April 2022, the temperature in Pakistan reached 49 degrees Celsius. The heat wave resulted in a temperature rise coupled with less rainfall from January to April 2022 in the Rabi season, affecting the production and average yield of Wheat crops. Similarly, disturbed rain patterns due to climate change affect wheat production.
To mitigate these risks, researchers advocate for drought-resistant varieties and alternative grains that thrive in saline soils with minimal water. Authorities in Pakistan should seriously think about developing varieties of seeds that can resist the effects of climate change in case of more or no rain.
Rice, another agricultural mainstay, contributes significantly to exports, particularly premium basmati. In 2024-25, production is expected to reach 9.5 million tons, bolstered by high-yield hybrid varieties. Though the above statistics are very encouraging, however, grey side of this is that Pakistan’s groundwater resources—the last resort of water supply — are severely overdrawn, mainly to supply water for irrigation. The rice crop is the major shareholder in consuming more water than any other crop. If the situation remains unchanged, the whole country may face ‘water scarcity’ by 2025. The situation is strategically more complicated, as Pakistan is the lower riparian country to India and 78 percent of its water inflows from therein. Yet traditional rice farming, which relies on flood irrigation, is unsustainable in the face of water scarcity.
Cotton, the lifeblood of Pakistan’s textile industry, faces its own set of challenges. Pest infestations, particularly the pink bollworm, and waterlogging during heavy rains have led to inconsistent yields. With a projected 5.5 million bales in 2024, cotton remains critical but precarious. Genetically modified cotton strains offer some respite with built-in pest resistance, however, industrial hemp is gaining traction as a less resource-intensive substitute.
Sugarcane, known for its high-water demands, exemplifies the struggle between traditional cropping and environmental sustainability. Pakistan produces around 70 million tons of sugarcane annually, yet its excessive irrigation requirements have strained groundwater reserves. Sweet sorghum, a viable alternative, offers similar utility in sugar production while consuming significantly less water. Farmers are also exploring oilseed crops such as canola and sunflower, which provide a lucrative, low-water option while reducing the country's dependency on edible oil imports.
Potential Solutions
To address these pressing issues, diversification is key. Pulses, including lentils, chickpeas, and mung beans, are gaining attention for their resilience to drought and ability to enrich soil with nitrogen. Barley and pearl millet, once staples in ancient diets, are making a comeback as hardy crops capable of withstanding extreme conditions. Farmers in drought-prone regions are also experimenting with drought-tolerant vegetables and fruits like guava and dates, which offer higher returns per drop of water.
Transitioning to climate-resilient crops requires robust policy support. Farmers need access to affordable, drought-resistant seeds and modern irrigation technologies. Educational campaigns can help them understand the benefits of diversification, while subsidies can ease the financial burden of shifting to alternative crops. Simultaneously, developing strong market infrastructure will ensure that these new crops find buyers, providing farmers with stable incomes.
The transformation of Pakistan’s agricultural landscape is not just a matter of changing seeds or farming methods; it’s about reshaping the narrative of resilience, justice and sustainability in the face of climate adversity. While the government and farmers alike are beginning to recognize the urgency of adopting climate-resilient crops, the road ahead demands a multifaceted approach.
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