Droughts and groundwater crises across Pakistan

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Muhammed Irfan Saeed

Climate change is making rainfall and droughts more extreme and unpredictable, which means we need groundwater more than ever as a buffer to support us. However, groundwater is not a renewable source in the same way that surface water is. It behaves more like oil — once we pump it out, it is often gone for good.

Scientists now warn that we are rapidly approaching a tipping point known as peak water — the moment when groundwater supply begins an irreversible decline, meaning that each year we will have less available than the year before.

Groundwater is foundational to modern human life. It supplies nearly a third of the world’s freshwater and over 40% of global irrigation. But worsening droughts, rising food demands, and shrinking aquifers are now on a collision course. A new study has modeled exactly where and when global peak water is expected to occur, and it is not good news for some of the world’s most important food-producing regions, such as Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Malaysia. In Indonesia, the crisis has become so severe that the government is relocating the entire capital city.

Initially, pumping groundwater seemed like a miracle — unlimited reservoirs of clean, accessible water on demand, with no visible consequences. In Pakistan, especially in the Punjab region, that water fueled the growth of some of the country’s most productive farming zones. These are areas with hot, sunny climates, perfect for crops, but without sufficient rainfall to sustain large-scale agriculture on their own.

Unlike surface water, which is visible in rivers and lakes and comes from rainfall, groundwater is stored underneath porous rock and soil, forming what is known as an aquifer. The process of groundwater recharge is so slow that much of the water stored underground is ancient — sometimes tens of thousands of years old. This is why it is often referred to as fossil water and considered non-renewable on human timescales.

However, we have not treated it that way. Instead of seeing groundwater as a finite resource, we have extracted it as if it were endless. The result? In some areas, water tables have dropped by hundreds of feet. Thousands of wells have run dry, leaving entire communities without access to water. In extreme cases, the land itself is sinking subsiding by several inches per month. Across the High Plains in the U.S., for example, some farmers are now drilling wells that cost thousands of dollars due to the depth required.

One might assume that as groundwater stress increases, societies would begin to manage it more sustainably. Unfortunately, the data tells a different story. In a study of 40 countries responsible for 75% of global groundwater withdrawals, the findings indicate that aquifers are shrinking faster than ever before.

So why are we not managing this water more carefully? Part of the answer lies in climate change. As droughts become longer and more intense, we rely more heavily on groundwater to compensate, which only accelerates depletion. At the same time, we will need groundwater even more in the future — precisely because droughts are worsening. This creates a catch-22 scenario.

A team of researchers recently ran 900 simulations using one of the world’s most advanced Earth system models. These scenarios explored a range of possible futures, including different climate trajectories, population growth, energy demands, and water policies. In nearly all 900 scenarios, global groundwater extraction follows a clear pattern of peaking around 2050, followed by decline. Many of the regions most likely to be affected are also among the world’s most important food producers, including critical farming zones in Pakistan, India, Mexico, the Western United States, and China.

To be clear, groundwater does not disappear entirely. There remains a vast volume beneath our feet. But as aquifers are pumped, water tables fall, and the remaining water becomes harder and more expensive to reach. Wells must go deeper. Energy use rises, and costs skyrocket. Eventually, many users hit a breaking point. Some adapt by switching crops or importing food. Others stop pumping altogether. This is what scientists mean by peak water: the point when extraction becomes too difficult, too costly, or too damaging to continue.

In this way, groundwater mirrors the behavior of other depletable resources like oil and minerals. If one of the most essential resources for growing food and sustaining life is already entering a phase of irreversible decline, what happens next?

For starters, food prices are likely to rise. As water becomes harder to access, major farming regions may struggle to maintain production. This will not just affect local food security — it will also ripple across global markets, impacting international trade. Moreover, wetlands and rivers that depend on groundwater will dry out, harming ecosystems and destroying wildlife habitats. As water levels drop, contamination may spread, with pollutants like salts and arsenic concentrating or seeping into aquifers from surrounding soil.

One of the most visible and severe impacts is land subsidence. This phenomenon is already prompting cities like Jakarta to relocate due to sinking ground. As aquifers deplete, the structural framework that supports the land begins to compact. This compaction causes permanent loss of aquifer storage capacity—meaning that even if water levels recover in the future, the aquifer can no longer hold as much water as before.

Subsidence is especially dangerous for coastal cities, as it compounds the effects of sea level rise. However, new research offers a glimmer of hope: while steady seasonal rainfall may become less reliable, sporadic but intense downpours could help replenish depleted aquifers — if we are ready to capture that water. This requires identifying permeable areas, protecting open spaces, and building infrastructure designed to absorb water, not divert it.

Ultimately, we must learn to manage our groundwater sustainably. Droughts will intensify in the coming decades, and this invisible yet vital resource will only become more critical to our survival.